Spark of the “Week”
I took so long getting this newsletter together (including learning how to recover from an accidental draft deletion and the emotional breakdown that followed - thanks Beehiiv!).
In the in between time, we had an AI apocalypse scare that moved on to there’s nothing to see here move along phase already. Wow is time moving quickly these days!
As someone who was raised Evangelical this is not my first end times, not sure if that should make you feel better or worse about my takes, but takes were made.
Thanks to Amy stepping up to edit our hottake here, extra grateful as this issue was so delayed.
Real incidents are coming so fast everyone is struggling to keep up with the current state. On Sept 16 (back when I was planning to send this newsletter) Six new incidents from OpenAI was the news and (of course) it happened again last weekend.
Rogue AI is the new thing, but sure, nothing to see.
As Amy and I discussed in the hottake, the uncomfortable reality is that both can be true. The world is not likely to end at the end of the decade (let’s be honest, decade ends tend to be pretty benign for all our interest in keeping things orderly that isn’t how things work) and a lot of bad things are going to happen.
Things we need to keep our eyes on.
Dr. Thomas Otter’s May 202518 month prediction is looking solid “I’m predicting that in the next 18 months or so, an AI Agent is going to bring a significant listed company to its knees: Chapter 11, or a massive miss, share price pummeling, CEO out the door.”
To quote Gary Marcus (again/still), “We really need to make a distinction that I have tried to make many times, between catastrophic risk and existential risk.” (Ian Bremmer is calling this p(crisis) and breaks that down here)
There are two things that need attention right away.
The first is coming to terms with the reality of cyber risk. If AI raises the bar for mediocre, then you can expect mediocre bad actors are likely able to breach your cyber defenses and experts will be able to get whatever they want. This is no longer a question of your personal data being exposed (that ship has sailed), it is the reality that every digital system is exploitable at the moment when everything is digital. I think business understands they need to elevate security posture - in a big way . In addition, every leadership team needs to update their business continuity AND incident response plans. If you haven’t done tabletop exercises in the last few months, then you better move that up on the to-do list. I will be here to say I told you so when we see this play out (a character flaw that I fully own).
The second is to brace yourself for insurance cost increases and fine print expansion as well as new legal challenges for the same. Similar to the insurance cost shifts from climate risk, we are going to find many new things in the gray area of accountability and risk. Dan Wang framed his book about China vs. US the US is a lawyerly society. Given how much of the US economy is dependent on the growth of AI the answer is already clear. It will be impossible for the frontier labs to hold legal liability for all of the things that are possible with their technology (you can remind yourself that car makers are not responsible for car accidents). At the end of the day, the risk will be (at best) shared. AI risks are not things you can opt-out of by refusing to use AI (or hosting yourself), these risks are inherited by everyone in business in the modern world today…. progress!
Reading and Pondering
Organization design must evolve to meet the moment. I’ve been talking about this for awhile but have started to feel like I was tilting at windmills. Huge shout to Jess for articulating the why.
An interesting take in finance on what is possible with an AI-first design. This got me excited about the art of the possible. h/t Dr. Thomas Otter
24 new rules for succeeding at work - while this is a bit of an all over the place listicle, it does have some good topics and things to consider. Worth a scan. Loved that when I saw it flagged on twitter Dave Kellogg noted his prior work on business meetings. Some seriously valuable things that matter in this list, as someone who does a LOT of dinner meetings I can assure you if you focus on these elements you will be noticed!
End of SaaSpocolypse and the ascendance of consumption models. Some great data by Jason Lemkin but his follow on was even more on point - the reality is that wallet has shifted which is an indication of buying priorities have also shifted. I think this is a durable trend. It is no longer sufficient to deliver incremental capability to the problems of the past, to grow as a software provider you need to be part of the emerging opportunity (or theat) of the future. Enabling new ways of working, new market capture and removing new bottlenecks are going to have bigger impacts and thus are capturing better pricing and growth. What is possible today that wasn’t yesterday? What risks have moved from mild to urgent? This is where budgets are moving and we should all be thankful this is true.
Birth rates below replacement - ** more here and an even deeper dive here.
TL;DR the most likely case in the [fairly near] future is real population decline. There is very little confidence or consensus on why (lots of hypothesis are reflected that end with blaming the catch-all of “modernity”.) The punchline is that things are moving faster than previously projected because… math.
As of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility. That has never happened before, not in wars or pandemics
Unless trends change, world population will peak at roughly 9 billion around 2056 and then start falling, first slowly, then fast.
Never before have we seen middle-income countries fall below rich countries in fertility.
As modernity has spread everywhere, even to countries with low income per capita, fertility has also fallen everywhere.
Tax AI - Andrew Yang (and others) are beginning to push for a tax on AI labor as a path to supporting the job transition ahead.
Software credit cooties - this on is a 10/10 on language choice alone, but also to remind everyone that there are many layers to the tech bubble and thus the overall economy right now. Businesses that make great sense when numbers are going up can become vulnerable when things turn down (dare I throw in a bear reference?). Hard to be sure what is cause and what is effect, but certainly increasing interest rates make current debt loads burdensome.
Bond Market jitters and what does it all mean. My point of view has not changed on this issue - historically over borrowing has always ended badly. I believe this will be true here as well. Compounding risks are real and should be taken seriously and yet we are so easily distracted at the micro chaos and taking our eye off the ball at the macro even though most of us know at some level this is a real risk. The question is when.
Work and Jobs
What HR can learn from Entrepreneurship education. Great insights by Dr. Anna Tavis on the shifting role of the HR team.
AI isn’t taking jobs - maybe it was all hype, maybe nobody knows but what the data shows is that AI is changing jobs by taking tasks but is not currently taking jobs. This is generally good news but something to keep an eye on as we start to see how those changed jobs are both related to quality (of both job and life) and wages.
Oops maybe we need managers after all - Meta edition. Amy and I are too generous to say we told you so… just kidding. OF COURSE we told you so! We need [great] managers more than ever before.
Enshittification and P(catastrophe)
AI recruiting slop flywheel (bots talking to bots). I’d like to say this is peak #Enshittification but somehow I think we can and will do better.
Fun and Funny
Do slop cannons need slop grenades? Asking for a [adult/hot] friend.
Overnight travel robo taxi edition - Might this be the next generation of the Pullman? Or maybe this is just a new kind of Knight bus? (or maybe I mean Magic Bus..)
Lifehacks - AI and Others
Emotional regulation - In a world where there is so much opportunity for dysregulation it seems like pondering how to self-regulate is a good idea. Thanks to Joshua Freedman for this one.
Looping Back to You
Thanks for reading, listening, sharing, and helping us think better. We love hearing where you agree, where you disagree, and what you're seeing from your seat.
If someone forwarded this to you, join the Insight Loop to get the next issue directly in your inbox.
And if you're already in the Loop, help us grow: forward this to someone who would enjoy it, and follow/subscribe to The Meg & Amy Show wherever you listen or watch.
Have a question you'd like us to tackle in a Leadership Corner? Send to: [email protected]
Watch & Listen: Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Youtube, etc.
More from Meg: Visit Meg's Website
** Typos and poor grammar either because I'm too lazy to edit properly, or to make you feel confident this was written by a flawed human and not AI generated.
