Art credit @Madison Harney
Spark of the Week
One of my hobbies is clocking the distance from when I have an idea to when I start to hear mainstream sources validate it. Historically, this has been between eighteen months and five years, but I'm noticing significant acceleration - not sure if this is me getting slower or the world getting faster (no points for guessing which story I'm choosing).
Today I noticed that Gartner is talking about one of the key points in my Nov 2024 post on Fundamental shifts and 10x business models.
George Brocklehurst, managing vice president at Gartner, said the study shows agentic AI “changes the economics of software”.
I also saw that Deloitte put out some Tokennomics guidance -- solid clarity on the broad thinking, but missing the specific guidance of my post (something I was reluctant to offer myself given how fast things are moving).
The good news, we are starting to build the right mental models for durable value creation. This is a big shift from where we were two years ago and I'm thrilled to see this happen.
The business of software pendulums from grow at all costs to value extraction and I worry we have lost the intuition for innovation based value creation in the enterprise. I am eager for the thesis that creates vs. optimizes, the opportunity that builds new operating models not outsourcing/eliminating workers.
My hope as we #InventTheFuture is that we lean into our new Builder capabilities not just to replace our moms or rebuild the past, but to invent and create.
Doing this will require human creativity not just optimization (h/t Gordon Ritter).
optimization is not the edge, because soon everyone will have it. The edge is the judgment that changes the goal, and the creativity that produces a move the model has never seen.
Reading and Pondering
AI killing books (specifically prescriptive non-fiction) “the market for information is collapsing into the chatbot. The market for transformation—for sitting with one mind, at length, on a subject it has bled for—might just get smaller, weirder, and more interesting. I’d bet on it. In a way, we’re reverting to the earlier days of the Internet.” – Meg POV: This is a good example for what disruption looks like (gradually then suddenly) and a great re-examination of strategy (what to do about it) and some theories on where things will change. To me this is a great example use case and also aligned with my sense that as things get hyper personalized we all start to live in different realities and finding both community AND breaking out of filter bubbles will need to be a LOT more intentional.
AI Spending benchmark - tl;dr top spend companies spend (per person) ~7.45k/month, top 10% are 611/month and median is 11.38/month - a pretty significant swing as you might have guessed.
AI Accounting - finally a breakdown of AI in SaaS businesses from a CFO point of view - this is restating a lot of what I included in Newsletter 20.
Above the model - sorting out the unique value of human contribution in the world of infinite agent intelligence. h/t Gordon Ritter and Jake Saper - Related - Satya’s frame of Token + Human Capital
How to wade through AI research - a great approach by Sangeet Paul Choudary worth reading more than once.
AI Sovereignty and some thoughts on the political and technical foundations of our new economy. This is a good read for both economic nerds and anyone building or selling globally. The reality that it is not just the technology that is moving quickly but also the broader macro economic and geopolitical foundational elements as well. Meg POV: It’s important to have a plan and a backup plan even if only mentally. You need this anyway if you are honest, so by all means proceed post haste with your AI initiatives, not doing anything is the biggest risk but recognize that you are in a middle state and are likely to need to change a few times in the next decade. Don’t forget to make the AI systems document the requirements and help you build a plan to migrate to a new model if (when) needed. Keep track of critical business signals (cost, availability, etc.) and have a plan for disruptions at every level. One of many reasons that you cannot outsource your thinking and judgement to AI even when (especially when) it’s tempting. Recent Supreme Court FTC ruling and EU data - h/t Dr. Thomas Otter - Meg POV: This is another place where both macro changes have unexpected impacts AND a wake up call on how so many people lack first principles understanding of the building blocks of their business. side note - this will create an advantage to larger tech companies who can navigate the data residency confidence for EU customers
Boards and AI - What boards get wrong about Cyber just like every other part of business boards themselves need to transform to meet the AI moment. There is a need to not only build awareness but to find the balance of responsibility for strategy, risk and opportunity capture. Conversations I’ve been having with board members makes it clear that this is top of mind for most directors right now.
Universal basic Capital - an interesting read on the different proposals to share the economic benefits with citizens.
Behaviors of AI Supercompanies - Meg POV: A great way to understand a transformation plan is to ask yourself what it looks like if we achieve this plan. This article gives you some insights into answering that question.
Work and Jobs
How far behind can you be personally on AI and get by. I wrote about this here.
86% of new jobs have gone to women since Jan 2025 - a solid breakdown on why and how that is both important to understand for policy and how men need to re-think career opportunities.
Job growth going to women
Job shaped boxes - a great historical lens on how we came to think about jobs and why that is being disrupted. My notes here. h/t John Sumser
RIP Job posts - A great summary by Katrina Kibben on why job posts are broken (hint: #Enshittification but also job shaped boxes)
Which choice your company has already made - This entire series by JESS VON BANK is fantastic - I am thinking a lot about not letting default mode thinking create end outcomes that we all regret. This does a great job reflecting the systems behind where the tech is taking our future. Related (mostly just in my head)- just finished the book Incorruptible and he talks about this as “Financial Gravity” (especially struck by the chapter about you’re not stuck in traffic you are traffic and how much agency we each have but don’t exercise)
NEW Lifehacks - AI and Others
How to AI loop a wonderful breakdown of this concept by Dharmesh with a really accessible use case to help make it concrete for people. For more on this topic see also /goals here
Looping Back to You
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** Typos and poor grammar either because I'm too lazy to edit properly, or to make you feel confident this was written by a flawed human and not AI generated.
